MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) — You may have heard about the establishment lane in the 2016 presidential campaign, the outsider lane and more. What the Republican candidates really want from the New Hampshire primary is an express lane out of the traffic jam that is the GOP contest.
Democrats want clarity, too, on Tuesday but are unlikely to find much of that in a primary Bernie Sanders was widely expected to win before he and national front-runner Hillary Clinton move to tougher ground for him.
New Hampshire voters reward insurgents at times (Pat Buchanan), iconoclasts other times (John McCain) and mainstream hopefuls on other occasions. They tend to like neighbors, such as Sanders from Vermont.
They have a history with the Clinton and Bush families, but that does not mean they follow a lane of the heart. Donald Trump’s splashy New York attitude is a turnoff to some and an attraction to others, and whether the GOP front-runner pulls off a much-needed win after he fell short in Iowa is one of the towering questions of the night.
Whatever happens, the 2016 campaign is in transition. The close-up campaigning in coffee shops and gyms in far-flung snowy expanses shifts now to bigger states where those who come out of New Hampshire intact will need the advertising muscle and organizational strength to score big, fast and increasingly at a national level.
A look at the race as New Hampshire voters head out for the nation’s first primary.
ABOUT THOSE LANES
—One of the favorite buzzwords of politicos this year, a lane is where several candidates unofficially compete for primacy in various segments of the electorate. In New Hampshire, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are struggling over who among them can consolidate the support of moderate or establishment-minded Republicans and rise up to be the prime challenger to Trump, the New Hampshire poll leader, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, the Iowa caucuses winner.
Until his famously flustered debate performance, Rubio was seen as the man on the move, probably not able to defeat Trump in New Hampshire but with a strong chance to outdistance other rivals and perhaps drive some from the race.
Whether that is so is the other towering question of the night.
—Among Democrats, Clinton’s 2008 win in New Hampshire set her back on course after a dispiriting third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, won by Barack Obama on his way to the presidency.
This time, a New Hampshire win would go even further to juice up her campaign after her unsatisfying hair’s-breadth win in Iowa. Short of such an upset, Clinton and Sanders will be casting the result in ways that suit them — a closer-than-expected margin, for example, could be spun as a victory for both. No clarity, in other words, unless the socialist Vermont senator badly stumbles.
CUE MUSIC FROM ‘JAWS’
In 2013, Republicans picked Rubio to respond to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, coveted prime-time exposure for the promising new senator. His jarring reach for a drink of water during his remarks prompted laughter and derision, a setback he eventually overcame by making fun of himself and letting time pass.
Not so after the New Hampshire presidential debate, when Christie rose like a shark from the depths and bit him. Rubio has earnestly defended his back-to-back repetition of rehearsed lines about Obama in the debate, saying he believes them so firmly he will keep saying them. But are the voters laughing?
FLASHBACK TO ’92
—A Republican insurgency rooted in populist anger, flavored with tough talk about immigration. Sound familiar?
In 1992 the insurgent was Buchanan, a conservative commentator then and now. He captured economic angst and disaffection with the status quo to mount an extraordinary challenge to a sitting president in an incumbent primary that normally would have seen no contest. Buchanan posted a strong finish behind President George H.W. Bush, Jeb’s dad. Buchanan dragged the primary contest on for several months before dropping out.
He took on the establishment again in 1996, winning in New Hampshire and declaring “the peasants are coming with pitchforks.” But the establishment — Bob Dole — won the nomination.
—In that unsettled time, Bill Clinton was “the man from Hope,” his Arkansas hometown and his siren call to the nation. A fresh face though hardly an outsider, the longtime Arkansas governor already had baggage — questions swirling about his behavior with women and his history with the military draft. But he powered to a “comeback kid” second-place finish against Paul Tsongas from neighboring Massachusetts, showing his campaign had resilience and reach after a poor finish in Iowa. He won the nomination and the White House.
Three years after “Dynasty” wrapped up on TV, these were the stirrings of the dynastic politics that would follow, through George W. Bush’s presidency in the 2000s, brother Jeb’s effort now and Hillary Clinton’s 2008 and 2016 campaigns.
Woodward reported from Washington.
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